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Another year
passes and North Korea gives the world more of the
same saber-rattling. The thugs in Pyongyang are
ringing in the new year by accusing the United
States of plotting war. The rest of the world
chuckles grimly, considering that the North
Koreans have a half million men or more within 20
miles of the border with South Korea, while the
South has a third that many. The South also hosts
37,000 US military personnel, who have the dubious
honor of being there solely to die valiantly and
force the US to war if the North invades.
North Korea is one of the last Stalinist
dictatorships in the world, and its leaders would
have hanged long ago if it didn't have unrest with
the South to keep the military fed and busy. The
more desperate their internal situation, the
louder they beat the drums of war. Like the
sheriff in Blazing Saddles, they keep getting out
of tight spots by holding a gun to their own head.
And for 30 years it has worked. South Koreans hope
that by occasionally throwing a few bucks their
way, the North will postpone the invasion and
eventually the regime will collapse under its own
incompetence.
How much of a threat is North Korea? There can be
little doubt that they have the ability to kill
large numbers of people in the South, but it is
fairly unlikely that they would succeed in holding
onto the whole peninsula, even without US
intervention. Of course, with substantial military
aid from China they would fare better.
Unfortunately for the North Koreans, China views
them as the weird little brother who they have to
keep bailing out of jail. With a rapidly growing
economy and desire for a huge empire, China
realizes that a Korea united under Pyongyang's
thumb will be a big mouth to feed, while a strong
South Korea provides markets and products. If it
weren't such a constant drain on their chief rival
(the US) North Korea wouldn't be much use to China
at all.
Clausewitz recognized that all other factors being
equal, defense is the stronger form of war. The
terrain on the Korean peninsula favors the
defenders. Both sides have turned the areas near
the DMZ into deathtraps for opposing forces, with
enormous numbers of mines, pre-sited artillery
targets, and fire sacks. To make matters worse for
the invader, in the 1980s Western military
doctrine and technology became geared towards
fighting while outnumbered, maintaining mobility,
counterattacking where possible, and striking
enemy follow-on forces with precision weapons to
slow the advance. These tactics have proven
effective both in training and in combat. The
North Koreans may well find themselves deep in
South Korea with no supplies, no air cover, no
remaining navy, and no way to get back.
A second Korean war would be a bloodbath for both
sides, but it is likely that the North's
government would fall when the invasion failed.
The big question is whether the government in
Pyongyang is rational at all. If the North is
playing a calculated game to draw money and aid
from the South, then war is not very likely. We
all have to hope that they haven't been in power
so long and in such isolation that they have
started to believe their own propaganda. If they
have, they might just pull that trigger.
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